‘Rise Of The Guardians’ Financially A Flop? I Doubt It

Rise Of The Guardians poster 1I was just on Deadline, and there’s a story there that says that an analyst from Lazard Capital Markets’ who speculates that DreamWorks will have to write off $95 million dollars on their animated feature, “Rise Of The Guardians.”

What’s interesting is that the same analyst originally believed that that number to be smaller almost by half ($45 million).  The higher, updated estimate surprises me because I have no idea where the analyst got the figure.

That being said, they may also have greater access to information than I do, but I am not only not seeing such a massive failure, but a film that could potentially be profitable (though probably not by much).

By which I mean, ‘Guardians’ cost $145 million to produce (I won’t speculate about its advertising budget, because I would be talking out of my arse.  Obviously such figures are important, though I don’t have them), though DreamWorks’ saving grace is that the film is strong overseas, and has pulled in just over $165 million.

That’s good;  Not great, but good.

The problem is that the film, domestically, has earned almost $93 million dollars.  If the production budget were around $100 million, it would probably break even in a few months.

So, I get the first estimate, though I think if the film remains in theaters  for the next three or four months that his original estimate of $45 million wold grow even smaller, and coupled with profits from DVD sales, and venues like iTunes, that deficit even turn black.

But a $95 million in the hole?  Sounds like fuzzy math to me.

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