The way Shazam’s box office performance is being trumpeted you’d think it’s success is assured.

It’s not.

Shazam has production budget of $100 dollars and earned over $158 million last weekend.

And that’s a strong opening but here’s the rub, the fly in the ointment, if you will: If Shazam falls off a cliff, box-office wise in it’s second and third weekends–which is entirely possible–this movie will not be as successful as people are implying.

Declines of 50-60 percent are hardly unusual for superhero tentpoles, so a fall in it’s second week is not only not unanticipated, but expected.

Shazam likely needs to earn somewhere in the ballpark of $300 million dollars to–at the very least–break even and that’s entirely possible though what I’m saying is that it’s not there yet.

And keep in mind: Avengers: Endgame comes out later this month, which will suck up all the oxygen for superhero movies.

In other words, Shazam has just over a two week “honeymoon” (from competition from other superhero movies, not movies in general) to make a profit.

Which it may very well do, but the jury is still out.