Warner Bros/New Line’s Black Adam dropped Friday in the United States, opening with a $26.8 million haul, not too shabby considering a projected $62.2 opening weekend.
Now here’s the problem.
Most superhero movies have a second week drop-off – let’s roll with that $62.2 million weekend opening estimate (at the end of the day actual numbers might be less, might be more) though it’s safe to assume that that Black Adam‘s second week would be fortunate to be half its’ initial opening, though that isn’t terribly likely based on past performance of superhero films in their second weekend.
Black Adam has October to fill Warner Bros box office coffers because November 11th will be the premiere of Marvel Studios’ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, the sequel to one of the highest-earning superhero movies (opening to just over $200 million in the United States, ending its run with $1.3 billion worldwide), never mind taking into account the death of Chadwick Boseman, is tracking for a opening of $180-225 million, which is even conservatively speaking, more than triple the likely opening of Black Adam‘s opening.
The point being, I don’t think it’s likely Black Adam meets its production cost in the month of October, which leads to the question: Is there room for two superhero features in November?
I’m willing to bet there isn’t because I anticipate that Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is going to suck the oxygen out of the box office, taking it – and more importantly millions of dollars – away from Black Adam.